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Experts predict a new boom in cryptocurrency. Should we believe?


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Experts predict a new boom cryptocurrency: is it worth believing? Over the past month, the appearance of experts' forecasts that promise a new big boom in the cryptocurrency market has increased in the media. Some of them believe that the new rally can surpass 2017 records by dozens of times. Electus collected some of the "prophecies." Do they have a chance to come true?

What the forecasters promise

We took only some forecasts of well-known experts and investors who promise “to the moon”. From our compilation, we excluded the forecasts of businessman John McAfee, CEO Tron Justin San, and top executives, who are known for being overly optimistic, bordering on propaganda. The collection contains only speakers, whose opinion can be taken into account.

The American investment manager, billionaire, founder of Galaxy Digital Capital Management Mike Novogratz is known for his fairly balanced view of the market. In 2017, the investor gave correct predictions on the value of Bitcoin, and at the beginning of 2018 predicted a large correction in the market, which continues to this day.

New investor forecast - the worst times for the market are over. Moreover, in one of the recent Twitter posts, Novogratz noted that the market situation is strikingly similar to the one that was observed last year on the eve of the most active rally stage. The investor refers to the indicators of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index (BGCI), which monitors the rates of cryptocurrencies against the dollar. “It seems that the market is returning to a breakthrough,” he wrote. Recall that at the peak of growth, market capitalization exceeded $ 800 billion. As of September 17, 2018, it is slightly over $ 200 billion.

Exceeded Novogratz in his expectations “to the moon” one of the pioneers of venture capital investment in the United States Tim Draper. According to the billionaire, who is known for investing in Skype and a number of other top startups, the size of the cryptocurrency market can reach $ 80 trillion. in the next 15 years.

“The Internet has changed industries that had markets of $ 10-100 billion, cryptocurrencies go further and change the industry with trillions of markets - this is banking and investment banking, as well as government activity and management,” he said in a commentary for DealStreetAsia.

Another well-known Wall Street veteran, ex-strategist of JP Morgan investment bank Tom Lee shares optimism. According to the analyst, by the end of this year, Bitcoin could surpass the historical maximum and reach $ 25,000 thousand.

Even Ethereum co-founder Vitaly Buterin, who regularly criticizes the speculative boom in cryptocurrency, did not rule out that there could be room for market growth. Vitalik's comments caused a wide response on Twitter, which initially stated that the price increase of cryptocurrencies would not be 1000 times more. After the accusations of pessimism, Buterin had to clarify his position and it turned out that Acne does not exclude a more moderate increase in prices. They say that a thousand times growth will mean a market capitalization of $ 200 trillion, so you just need to be realistic.

Is it worth waiting for “to the moon”?

The famous American trader, writer and philosopher Nassim Taleb in his book “Black Swan. Under the sign of unpredictability, ”notes that people have never been able to predict fateful events in history and science. Taleb is a merciless critic of experts and economists whose forecast accuracy is extremely low. Interest in the book published in 2007 sharply increased after the crisis of 2008–2009, which could not be predicted by the economists of any of the top Wall Street banks. Some of them paid for myopia collapse.

We looked at Wall Street and cryptocurrency races in 2017. Recall that top managers of banks first tried to ignore it, then declared a “bubble”, but eventually, they began to study and adapt a new direction - the classic “black swan”.

Venture investors often admit that it is almost impossible to predict the success of a startup. In this connection, the portfolio model is used. The calculation is made on the fact that 1 out of 10 investments “will make the X's” and discourage the costs of all the failures. The cryptocurrency market is now in a state of venture. It can be influenced by hundreds of factors that are beyond the scope of forecasters.

However, a fresh wave of forecasts, not so important positive or negative, can still give an impetus to the market, at least short-term. The fact is that there is a correlation between the number of publications in the media, requests to Google and the rate of cryptocurrency. Positive publications or negative ones are not so important, the main thing is that public interest generates purchases. Experienced observers remember hundreds of prophecies about the imminent collapse of Bitcoin, against which the main cryptocurrency has grown by leaps and bounds. Let them say we will check.
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